The Brennan Center has released projections of congressional reapportionment following the 2030 Census. The Brennan Center projects Florida and Texas to be the big winners, with each state gaining four (!) congressional seats. Arizona, Idaho, North Carolina, and Utah each gaining one seat in the projections. California loses four (!) seats, with New York losing two seats, Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Wisconsin project to lose one seat each.
Twelve congressional seats and electoral college votes changing hands, if it comes to pass, will be no small thing. Partisans ought not to get too excited yet, as it is quite possible that what constitutes a “swing state” might shift between now and 2032. Viewing this from where things sit at the start of 2025, however, these projections look broadly favorable to Republicans.
Part of the story reflects Florida’s long-term rise and New York’s long-term decline. Florida gaining seats and New York losing seats accelerate a century-long trend. The chart below uses the Brennan estimates for 2030 and shows the actual number of congressional seats for Florida and New York from 1930 to 2030.
It is not terribly difficult to discern the trends here, what with New York having nine times as many congressional seats as Florida in 1930 but projected to have eight seats fewer than Florida after 2030. As recently as 2000-2010, New York still held a 29 to 25 congressional seat advantage, and the states stood tied at 27 each for the 2010-2020 period. If the Brennan projections prove out, Florida will have gained five seats since the 2010 Census, while New York will have lost three.
Many factors are at play in these trends: weather, business climate, housing prices, taxes etc. California’s projected loss of four seats seems to indicate that policy-related factors can and have overwhelmed even the most favorable climate.
In the case of New York and Florida, Florida has a K-12 system that produces in many ways better results for a fraction of the cost. For the sake of brevity, I will not demonstrate this here, but feel free to visit the NAEP data explorer if you feel skeptical. New Yorkers have not only been surpassed by Florida, but taxpayers must foot a revenue per-pupil bill that is nearly three times higher than that in Florida.
Paying the nation’s highest state and local tax burden is voluntary; you can avoid it, for instance, by moving to Florida. Surveys further indicate that more than four times as many parents desire to enroll their children in private school as those that manage to do so (42% desiring it, 10% practicing.) Florida provides for families wishing to attend private schools. The state also provides a more effective and efficient public school system for those who do not.
This century-long trend may not reverse; it may accelerate.
