Americans started a Baby Bust in 2008 (on behalf of Gen-Xers-welcome you to the club youngsters!) In addition, the public school system seems determined to do their best imitation of Side-Show Bob marching over rakes since 2020, prompting a great many American families to make other schooling plans. Peak school district enrollment clearly lies in the past. In the states having created or expanded private choice policies, advocates should be prepared to have attempts made to scapegoat choice programs for district school closures. For example, last week in Arizona:
The Arizona Department of Education put out open enrollment reports by districts in 2022 and reported where residents of the Paradise Valley Unified School District attended school. In addition, the Department reported ESA enrollment by quarter, so the final quarter of 2022 is included below.
Scottsdale Unified, which borders Paradise Valley Unified, is the biggest “drainer” of students residing within the boundaries of Paradise Valley Unified, if you are misguided enough to see students as indentured peons. If however you view students as human beings with agency and dignity, you might look at the above table and think “wow- that’s a lot of diversity, variety and pluralism!”
2022 was before the universal ESA expansion fully took effect, and the 2023 ESA report has 2,712 residents of Paradise Valley Unified School District enrolled in ESA. As you might discern from the above table, these students had tons of options on where to go to school other than their local district. Moreover, if we add up the total number of kids attending other school districts (marked in light blue) from 2022 and compare it to the number of 2023 ESA students, the numbers look like this:
Note that Paradise Valley has been losing students to other districts for decades, whereas the ESA program is a relative newcomer. Right about now you might be asking yourself “Self, why don’t choice opponents ever complain about open enrollment?” I can’t be certain, but it might have something to do with the fact that kids transferring between unionized districts doesn’t bother them overly much, but that would be speculation on my part.
In any case, Arizona is 15 years and counting into a Baby Bust, and the state has millions of square feet in unused or underutilized district school space. School closures seem inevitable, raising the question who should decide? Arizona families should carry on voting with their feet on which schools endure, which replicate or expand, and which to close.
