During World War II the British kept a group of stately manors for high-ranking German military prisoners. The British treated them well in these gilded cages, giving them full access to the grounds and to newspapers and radio broadcasts. The British neglected however to mention to their prisoners that they had bugged the entire grounds of the estates to listen in on their conversations, recording them on vinyl records in a basement. When news reached the prisoners that the German armies assaulting Stalingrad had been enveloped and subsequently destroyed, the prisoners not so private conversations revealed that the Germany’s ultimate defeat was inevitable- the cost of making some of the most basic strategic errors (overreach) was simply too great to recover from. The mighty Wehrmacht, which had previously rampaged across Europe undefeated, was (thankfully) doomed.
This was neither the first nor the last time for this sort of thing. Militaries throughout history have experienced the phenomenon known as “outrunning your supply lines.” A typical experience might include a breakthrough of enemy lines, the seizure of a growing amount of territory, thinning the offensive forces. Resupply of basic necessities like ammunition and food can get more difficult as forces advanced and then (oooops!) you find yourselves facing unexpectedly fierce resistance and, worse yet, your avenue of retreat has been closed. Now you are surrounded and often in deep trouble.
The education freedom movement has been on quite a roll in recent years- passing robust private choice bills in multiple states. The current battlefield map looks something like:
So, this looks like advancing on all fronts- slam the pedal to the metal! By all means- yes. As one of the grey beards of the choice movement, however, I will sound a note of caution: many of the recent victories have occurred during a highly unusual moment in state fiscal history. During the COVID-19 pandemic our federal Olympians got out the money printer. They seemed to believe that debasing the currency would cure an upper respiratory infection. What it actually accomplished was spiking an inflationary spiral and giving state governments more money than they could productively handle. States ran large budget surpluses during the pandemic, and it was fun while it lasted. The COVID funny money era however is quickly drawing to a close, as noted by Pew:
Tax receipts in most states declined for the second consecutive year in fiscal 2024—an extraordinary event outside a recession. This highly unusual trend underscores that much of states’ historic tax revenue gains during the pandemic were temporary. As budget conditions stabilize after years of volatility, policymakers face two new challenges: maintaining balanced budgets as one-time funds fade while pandemic-era budget commitments persist and determining whether to preserve or deploy record-high budget reserves without a clear sense of whether current savings are sufficient to weather future downturns.
Should this make your school choice Spidey-sense tingle? Indeed, it should. Many of the choice laws passed in recent years have been funded based upon a state appropriation. In essence, this equates to many of these laws being funded by state surpluses. Moreover, given the role that inflation played in the 2024 election, states shouldn’t be expecting a repeat of the previous folly anytime soon.
My telepathic powers are picking up … something … yes … it is clear now. “Okay Ladner, so we passed a school choice bill with an appropriation, and the clouds on the budgetary horizon have darkened. What should we do?!?” I’m glad you asked! I would recommend getting your choice program embedded in your state funding formula, tout de suite.
States have no interest in how families satisfy their mandatory school attendance requirements and thus should fund neutrally with families making their own decisions. If K-12 cuts lie in our fiscal future they should likewise be shared equally on a per pupil basis. If you leave your program funding out in a surplus, it does not follow that it will eventually not get funded, but it does mean you could find yourself in a quagmire competing against a whole lot of interests for a shrinking amount of money.
If I had a reliable crystal ball, I would purchase Rhino Records. Next, I would produce a series of punk-rock and swing compilation CDs called “Martinis from the Mosh Pit.” I would do this from one of my James Bond super-villain lair style mansions. This alternate timeline version of yours truly would be indifferent to the fact that my CDs might not sell terribly well. Alas, as it is, I cannot forecast the future with sufficient precision.
In the paraphrased words of Prince, however, surpluses are just a party, and parties aren’t meant to last.
Make your plans accordingly.
